Ending the Retrofit Rollercoaster: Why Wave 3 Must Be Different

The UK’s path to Net Zero is currently a white-knuckle ride of “boom and bust” funding, perverse incentives, and technical hurdles. In the latest episode of the Refurb and Retrofit podcast, our MD Jack Allen sits down with Matt Milloy to discuss how we move past the chaos toward a future of truly warm, healthy homes.

The retrofit industry has a problem: we know what needs to be done, but the system often gets in the way. From the instability of government “Waves” to the human cost of poor air quality, Jack Allen dives into the hard truths of the industry and offers a strategic roadmap for what comes next.

Here are the five key takeaways from the frontline of UK retrofit.

1. Stopping the “Boom-and-Bust” Cycle

The stop-start nature of social housing funding (SHDF, HUGS, GBIS) is a silent killer for the private sector. When funding “Waves” crash, businesses are forced to shed staff; when new money is announced, they struggle to scale back up.

While the Warm Homes Wave 3 cycle offers a three-year window of hope, the uptake is still sluggish. For retrofit to work, we need a steady, predictable pipeline – not a series of panicked sprints that destabilise the supply chain.

2. Strategy Over “Stuff”: Why We Need Better Incentives

Current funding models often reward “visible” expensive measures (like External Wall Insulation) while ignoring the “invisible” basics that actually make a home perform.

• The Problem: We are overlooking low-cost, high-impact fixes like airtightness because they don’t always fit into “non-energy” work criteria.
• The Solution: Policy should prioritise expertise and consultancy upfront. By investing in detailed archetyping and data-driven property assessments before a single brick is moved, we ensure the right measures are applied to the right homes.

3. The Human Cost: It’s Not Just About Carbon

Retrofit isn’t just an environmental box-ticking exercise; it’s a public health emergency. Jack shared a sobering reality: the UK sees 25,000 excess cold-home deaths and 30,000 deaths from air pollution annually.

Drawing on personal experience with his daughter’s asthma, Jack highlighted that over half of her Bristol nursery group suffers from the same condition – linked directly to urban air quality and poorly ventilated homes. A well-insulated, properly ventilated home isn’t just “green” – it’s a life-saver.

4. “Bacon Butty Bribes” & The PR Problem

Retrofit has a perception problem: it’s seen as a dusty, inconvenient necessity rather than a lifestyle upgrade. To reach the 20% “critical mass” needed for social change, we need to make people want it.

Jack’s suggestion? Experiential learning. We need incentivised “open-home” programmes where people can see and feel the difference for themselves. Whether it’s a “bacon-butty bribe” or a £10 Greggs voucher, we need to get people through the doors of retrofitted homes to break the cycle of misinformation.

5. A Call for Bold Leadership

The podcast concluded with a challenge to our political leaders. Just as the smoking ban and congestion charges were initially unpopular but eventually became common-sense wins for public health, retrofit requires bold, decisive action. We need to stop worrying about established norms and start building the homes our society actually needs.

Turning Technical Strategy into Building Performance

Jack’s points on the podcast highlight a clear industry shift: we have to move from “ticking boxes” to ensuring actual building performance. Achieving this requires a move away from assumptions and toward data-driven retrofit planning.

If you’re planning a Wave 3 project and need technical support, get in touch with our team.